The current market outlook of Bitcoin ($BTC) appears bearish. It is now raising concerns among the community members regarding a full-fledged bear market. Investor sentiment also stands muted while Bitcoin ($BTC) is facing significant price declines and fading enthusiasm. As per Benjamin Cowen, a prominent crypto analyst on YouTube and X with millions of followers, the ongoing downtrend of Bitcoin just reflects the repetition of the historical cycle. Additionally, he has also pointed toward the likely opportunities hidden within this bearish momentum.
Bitcoin Previous 4-Year Halving Cycles Denote Repetition of Trends Amid Ongoing Decline
The market statistics suggest that the 4-year market cycle of Bitcoin ($BTC) has a close association with halving events. In this respect, the flagship crypto asset touched key market peaks in the post-halving year’s 4th quarter, as Q4 2021, Q4 2017, and Q4 2013 witnessed. Now, the present price action seems to be going through the same pattern.
As a result, the ongoing market scenario of Bitcoin ($BTC) presents the repetition of the previous cycles instead of an unanticipated breakdown. Another thing that supports this idea includes the comparison of the duration of return on investment (ROI) across cycles. Specifically, this metric has also remained consistent when it comes to the time taken to raise $BTC from the lows to highs within the cycles.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,000, down 30% from BTC all-time high. As per CrypBlock analysts, BTC could go down towards the $60k range to grab more liquidity as the crowd is still expecting an altcoin rally. It is likely because the crypto market mostly behaves opposite to crowd sentiment. However, this could take almost 6 months to reach this correction level. Meanwhile, sideways movement will persist for BTC with occasional pumps to create more liquidity on both sides.
Diminishing Returns on Bitcoin Draw Parallels to Market Outlook in 2019 Amid Impact of Monetary Policy
The respective trend signifies the concept of decreasing gains while Bitcoin is maturing in terms of an asset class. At the same time, while the price volatility persists, the massive uptake witnessed during the previous cycles is hardly replicating, raising the potential for extended drawdowns or consolidation. Additionally, the data also draws a noteworthy parallel between the present conditions as well as the market environment seen back in 2019. During that time, $BTC’s performance underwent heavy influence of worldwide monetary policy, increased interest rates, and quantitative tightening.
Particularly, Bitcoin ($BTC) hit its peak in 2019 just before the conclusion of quantitative tightening, indicating a solid correlation that existed between market performance and liquidity conditions. The present outlook also displays similar macroeconomic pressures on risk assets such as digital currencies. Adding to this, another key similarity takes into account the absence of wider “alt season” as well as the lack of new retail participation. Along with that engagement metrics and social interest signs present decreased enthusiasm for exclusive investors, reverberating the subdued sentiment of 2019. Based on this historical precedent, $BTC is again readying for a rebound.
Moving Averages Suggest Likely Recovery after Prolonged Downtrend
According to Benjamin Cowen, in line with the historical cycle progression of Bitcoin ($BTC), its current downturn may push it toward a recovery. Nonetheless, such a move would reportedly require weakness or stress in conventional, lower-risk assets such as equities. Moreover, during the former cycles, a bull rally concluded with a dip below the 50-week moving average, which often extended to 100-week and ultimately the 200-week moving averages. The present price action is also seemingly tracking the respective technical roadmap.
Overall, this analysis indicates the opportunity for accumulation amid Bitcoin’s ($BTC) decline while it prepares for the next bull rally.
This article has been written to provide education about Bitcoin, its price trends and historical BTC cycles. This is for information purpose only so don’t make any investment based on the knowledge provided in this article.
Umair Younas is a veteran crypto journalist with 6 years of experience. He writes on various categories including Bitcoin ($BTC), blockchain, Web3 and the broader decentralized finance (DeFi) space. He pens well-researched price analysis and prediction articles in addition to credible news articles. He writes easy-to-grasp educational articles to fulfil his aim of creating blockchain awareness.
- Umair Younas
- Umair Younas
- Umair Younas
- Umair Younas
